Fantasy Football Target Practice: Late-Round QB’s

If the past two years have been any indication, you should be waiting to take QB’s later in your drafts and many sharp fantasy players are employing strategy with resounding success. Sure, who wouldn’t want Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson as their fantasy QB? They are stone-cold locks as an every-week starter playing in fantasy-friendly offenses.

However, with the way drafts are shaking out, you’ll need to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick to snag them, and that’s in the range of a nice RB2 in Miles Sanders, a WR1 in Chris Godwin, or a TE1 in Travis Kelce. In essence, you’re losing an enormous amount of value by going QB that early, especially when QB results have a more condensed range of outcomes and you can find upside later in drafts.

Each year, there are breakout candidates at QB that you could find late in drafts. Two years ago, that was Patrick Mahomes, last year that was either Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. The strategy has paid off with leaps and bounds, and with the current class of late-round QB’s, it’s likely to occur again in 2020. Here are some late round QB’s that I’m targeting this year.

MATTTHEW STAFFORD – DETROIT LIONS ADP: 109 (10th-11th Round)

When Stafford was healthy during the first 8 weeks of the 2019 season, we were seeing a different Stafford than what we saw in Jim Bob Cooter’s offense. Had Stafford been healthy the whole season, he would have been a top-3 fantasy quarterback if his stats are extrapolated for 16 games. Under new offensive coordinator Darren Bevell, Stafford was 2nd in the NFL with 8.6 yards per attempt and 2nd with 13.1 yards per completion. The Lions offense was averaging over 25 points a game while he was under center and then things went awry after his injury.

Stafford should also benefit from additional weapons on the offense. TJ Hockenson is a breakout candidate as he enters his 2nd season, D’Andre Swift adds a dynamic pass catcher out of the backfield, and the offense will bring back Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola as their 3 primary receivers, and the offensive line returns 3 starters. Having team continuity with the reduced practice schedule is a nice added bonus.

Currently, Stafford is going off the boards in the latter part of the 10th round. That number is slowly rising and will continue to rise as touts look at his situation. Regardless, I would much rather attack RB, WR or TE early and select Stafford later in drafts.

Stafford’s biggest question mark is his injury history, as he missed the last 8 games of the season with his back injury. However, before this injury, he did not miss a game since 2010. Stafford has top-5 upside on a sneaky offense that could be a contrarian stack that others will likely shy away from.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER – PITTSBURGH STEELERS: ADP 122 (11th Round)

Is it a trend to target QB’s coming off injury? Usually it is, as people commonly operate on recency bias and will shy away from someone who’s coming off a season-ending injury. I would be lying if I said picking Big Ben wasn’t risky. He’s 38 years old, he’s never been known as a workout warrior and he’s coming off a season-ending injury to his throwing arm. There are signs that Roethlisberger’s talent is waning, most notably his wobbly home-road splits over the past 4 seasons. There are other concerns - His offensive line is getting older and is diminishing in talent and his defense is uber-talented - that doesn’t bold well for having the Pittsburgh offense “shoot out” and participating in high-scoring games.

Despite the warning signs, we are targeting ceilings for late round QB’s and no one can deny that a healthy Roethlisberger has a massive ceiling. In 2018, he led the NFL in passing yards (5,129) and was 5th in touchdown passes (34).

Having Ben under center will be a significant boost to a Steelers offense brimming with weapons. JuJu Smith Schuster should return to a top WR with a competent QB and many folks, including myself, are extremely high on Diontae Johnson, who led rookie WR’s with 59 receptions in 2019 and has some of the best advanced metrics for his elusive rate and his YAC metrics. The weapons don’t stop there. James Washington is another field stretcher, the Steelers drafted Chase Claypool in the 2nd round and signed red-zone threat Eric Ebron in free agency. James Conner returns as a healthy lead back with pass catching chops.

If Roethlisberger stays healthy, he will be in command of a top-level offense and is a late-draft target to key in on.

DANIEL JONES – NEW YORK GIANTS: ADP 124.4 (11th-12th Round)

One of the most shocking statistics from last season was the list of quarterbacks who had more 30 PPR FPT games than Daniel Jones last season. The list consists of:

Lamar Jackson. That’s it. That’s the list.

Daniel Jones only played in 13 games last season and was behind a lackluster offensive line and had a rotating cast of supporting characters due to injuries and suspensions. However, he still was in the top 15 for pass touchdowns, 7th in QB rush yards and had two of the top 10 performances by a QB in the 2019 season.

Daniel Jones is a perfect target in fantasy. You won’t get penalized harshly for his interceptions or his fumbles, but he has running upside, an immensely talented pass-catching back and wide receivers, a bolstered offensive line and a mediocre defense which increases the chances for shoot outs. He’ll also get to operate in a new offense, as Jason Garrett comes over to be new offensive coordinator after calling plays for two elite QB’s in Tony Romo and Dak Prescott.

Daniel Jones’ one big fantasy knock is his early-season schedule:

WK 1 vs Pittsburgh

WK 2 at Chicago

WK 3 vs San Francisco

WK 4 vs Los Angeles Rams

But after that, the schedule considerably lightens against a weak NFC East division with questionable pass defenses.

Out of all my late-round targets, I believe Jones has the highest ceiling and even if you can’t grab him in your drafts, there’s a decent likelihood that he’ll be sitting on waivers after a tough stretch to start the season and he could be a waiver-wire winner for someone.

JOE BURROW – CINCINNATI BENGALS: ADP 133.5 (12th-13th Rounds)

No one can deny the fact that the Bengals were a dumpster fire in 2019. They ranked in the bottom five of total offense and defense and it was clear that change was needed. The Red Rifle, Andy Dalton, was shipped out of town and the Bengals took Joe Burrow No. 1 overall. Burrow, coming off the most prolific offensive season in CFB history, is now poised to be the day 1 starter.

Despite how bad the Bengals were last season, they oddly have some positive outlook for the 2020 season. Tyler Boyd emerged as a premiere slot-receiver last season, A.J Green should be healthy, and auxiliary WR’s Auden Tate, John Ross and Tee Higgins round out a relatively talented WR corps. Joe Mixon is one of the more talented running backs in the league and should see increased pass catching duties if the Bengals try to mold an offense to what Burrow ran in college. The Bengals will also be adding a premium blindside tackle, as last year’s 1st round pick Jonah Hill should be healthy and ready to roll.

Before I continue, there is a trend that doesn’t bode well for Joe Burrow. Rookie QB’s haven’t fared particularly well in their rookie campaigns over the past 5 seasons.

Carson Wentz (QB24)

Jared Goff (QB37)

Mitchell Trubisky (QB28)

Deshaun Watson (QB26)

Baker Mayfield (QB16)

Sam Darnold (QB27)

Lamar Jackson (QB29)

Josh Rosen (QB24)

Daniel Jones (QB23)

Dwayne Haskins (QB35)

Drew Lock (QB37)

Only 2 quarterbacks, Dak Prescott (QB6) and Kyler Murray (QB7) have had top 10 fantasy seasons as rookies, but Burrow fits the mold. He’ll come in as a highly-touted prospect, enter a good offensive situation and he also has rushing upside. He had 12 rushing TD’s and 767 rush yards in his last two seasons at LSU.

Burrow will have the keys handed to him and if Zac Taylor can get a scheme that will allow Burrow to tap into his collegiate success, the sky is the limit for the youngster and he has immense value at his current ADP.

TEDDY BRIDGEWATER – CAROLINA PANTHERS: ADP 168.2 (14th-15th Round)

This is scraping the bottom of the barrel, but Carolina might have a historically bad defense with a talented offense. They will be one team constantly playing from behind, leading to more pass attempts and more of an onus on Bridgewater to preform to keep the Panthers in games.

Carolina will have talented offensive weapons. Christian McCaffrey provides one of, if not the best dual-threat out of the backfield. D.J Moore had a breakout season with Kyle Allen and you have to surmise that Bridgewater is a big improvement over Allen. Add in Curtis Samuel, deep-threat Robby Anderson and a pass-catching tight end in Ian Thomas and the Panthers have an exciting offensive core to surround Bridgewater.

Last season, with Drew Brees out after his thumb injury, Bridgewater stepped in and went 5-0, completing 68% of his passes, and threw for 9 TD’s to just 2 INT’s. His biggest knock is that he’s a dump-down artist, and there are questions about whether he can truly stretch the field, Despite the stigma, Bridgewater completed 46.7% on his deep balls last season, which ranks 4th in the NFL.

He’s one of the last picks off the board in many drafts, but the game flow for the Panthers could lead Bridgewater to having one of, if not his most successful fantasy season to date.

Who do you think will be a late-round QB steal? Hit me up on Twitter @JesseMyers88